Tuesday 14 October 2008

IMF improves estimates about Romania’s economic growth on 2008

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Romania will report in 2008 a real growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 8.6% after a 6-percent growth in 2007, reads the latest report pertaining to the outlooks of the world’s economy, published on October 8 in Washington.

The new estimates included in „World Economic Outlook” shows that the Fund significantly improved the estimates referring to the economic growth pace registered in Romania this year, considering in April the Fund staked on an economic growth of only 5.4%.
The fund warns, however, that next year Romania’s real economic growth will slow down to 4.8%.

As regards the inflation at the end of the year, the International Monetary Fund stakes as regards Romania a rate of 7.9% in December 2008.
Allowing for the average inflation rate, the International Monetary Fund forecasts an average inflation rate for Romania worth 8.2% in 2008.
The current account deficit will draw near this year to the level of 13.8% of the GDP, down compared to 14% of the GDP in 2007. In the outlooks made public this spring, the International Monetary fund anticipated a current account deficit of 14.5% of the gross domestic product in 2008.

In June 2008, the regional representative of the International Monetary Fund for Romania and Bulgaria, Juan Jose Fernandez Ansola announced that the International Monetary Fund would positively revise Romania’s economic growth, which will be significantly higher over the previous year.

Comanescu: EU should assume top role in solving Transdniestr conflict



Following Romania's urgent requests the European Union has sent on Monday (Oct 13) on the occasion of the General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting, a very strong message on its availability to get engaged in bringing the Republic of Moldova closer to the EU and in finding a solution to the conflict in Transdniestr, stated the chief of Romanian diplomacy, Lazar Comanescu.

"The substantial conclusions adopted today by the EU foreign ministers convey several strong messages. First of all, that the EU is ready to start negotiations upon a new and more ambitious agreement with the Republic of Moldova.

Secondly, the document underlined that this agreement's objective is to bringing the Republic of Moldova closer to the European Union - which, we hope, will lead in time to an association formula. And, thirdly, it emphasized the EU engagement in solving the conflict in Transdniestr", announced Minister Comanescu in front of the Romanian press.

Romania has insisted, mainly in the past months, after the war broke out in Georgia, that it is essential for the European Union to get more actively involved in finding solutions to the frozen conflicts, especially to the one in Transdniestr, on the territory of a country in its immediate neighborhood.

"The crisis in Georgia shows that the premise that time might solve all frozen conflicts is a completely wrong one and such a conflict can evolve anytime from a "frozen" to a hot one.

Therefore, the EU must pay an enhanced attention and find new mechanisms and means for solving such conflicts in the aim to ensure stability and security in the zone, Europe's security and the world's security, in general.

EU should assume a top role all the more so given that this is a frozen conflict on the territory of a state in its immediate vicinity", underlined the Romanian diplomacy chief.

As well, the document referring to the Republic of Moldova, adopted on Monday by GAERC, reaffirms the EU confidence that the "5+2" negotiations format (Russia, Ukraine and OSCE as mediators, EU and USA as observers) represents the "sole guarantee for the needed transparency and legitimacy in finding a durable solution" and reaffirms the "EU attachment to the Republic of Moldova's sovereignty and territorial integrity".

The EU foreign ministers did not overlook to remind to the authorities in Chisinau that the "nature of relations between the Republic of Moldova and the EU will be influenced by the "reform pace and quality" in this country.

In this context, the Moldovan authorities are encouraged to make every necessary effort "to consolidate the rule of law and to implement its pledge to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms".

The EU underlined, at the same time, the "special importance it attaches to the running of parliamentary elections in the Spring 2009 in a democratic manner".

The conclusions adopted today by the EU foreign ministers will be submitted to the heads of state and government, at their summit on October 15-16, which - most likely - will adopt them in the form presented by the foreign ministers.

Romania Looking to Modernize its Forces




Romania certainly isn’t one of NATO’s bid senders in absolute terms, but it is one of only 4 NATO countries to approach or exceed the accepted defense spending commitment of 2% of GDP. At Black Sea Defense & Aerospace 2008, Romania’s Curierul National interviewed Defence Minister Teodor Melescanu regarding Romania’s future plans. Among other things, the recent official request for a used and new American F-16s does not appear to be the end of the competition to replace its upgraded MiG-21 Lancers. From the interview:

“The six strategic programs refer to the purchase of the new multi-role planes and of the multirole systems and ground-to-air long-range missiles for the Air Force, the purchase of 4 multifunctional corvettes and 4 mine-hunter boats for the Naval Forces, respectively to the acquisition of some armoured personnel carriers (8×8 and 4×4) and some armoured and non-armoured off-road vehicles for the Land Forces. These purchases are absolutely necessary for the Romanian Army, whose technique is obsolete in a proportion of 90%.... the total is 13 billion euros, indeed, but I want to emphasize that we do not have this money… ready to spend it when necessary. However, the executive has given us the possibility, by Emergency Ordinance no. 111/2006, which allows ministries to contract loans on the international banking market, we can employ such loans up to the limit of 2.38% of GDP…. in a predictable financing line for the period 2009-2013. We also consider achieving these acquisitions with the participation of internationally prestigious companies, which we would attract in the modernisation and privatisation process of the defence industry.”

Indeed, the MiG 21s will deplete their flight resource by 2010-2011 and therefore we must absolutely start the programme of purchasing a multi-role plane…. The issue is the purchase of 48 planes, the budget effort exceeding 3.5 billion lei… financed by foreign loans, using the mechanisms of Emergency Ordinance no. 111/2006…. As there appeared some information about the purchase of second-hand planes, too, I want to emphasize that, personally, I think we are too poor to buy cheap, used things. I do not think that the solution of second hand devices is the best option and therefore I feel inclined to the purchase of new aircraft. And I insist on the human resource. We have valuable pilots and we cannot waste this value we have…. As I have said, there are five models of multirole planes that meet the technical-operational requirements set up by the specialists of the Romanian Air Force. We are considering the F-16 plane… the JAS-39 Gripen… the Eurofighter Typhoon… the F-18… and the Rafale [the F-35 was eliminated].

....To take a decision based on real and as complete as possible data, the Ministry of Defense has conducted information activities during the recent years, which have included working visits of delegations of specialists, organisation of presentations and sending requests for information to potential producers, suppliers and users of multi-role aircraft. As a result of these activities the 5 types of airplanes I mentioned above were identified. But no decision has been taken yet.”