IMF comes to Bucharest to discuss potential arrangement

An IMF mission is due to arrive in Bucharest in two weeks' time, to evaluate the macroeconomic situation of Romania and launch talks to conclude a support agreement to cover the financing deficit for 2009, official sources say.

"The mission is coming for a first contact with the new government and to assess the viability of an arrangement. A deal will probably be agreed upon in the end because Romania needs an anchor and even if it were to turn to the European Commission for aid it would still need an arrangement with the IMF to monitor tax and salary policies. Brussels relies on the IMF's expertise as it did in the case of the aid for Hungary," the quoted sources say. The Government is also expected to discuss the issue with the European Commission, as well.

The big question for Romania this year is how it can finance both the foreign deficit, considering the significant decline of foreign direct investment, as well as the budget deficit, considering revenues are already dwindling fast. According to the latest estimates, the budgetary deficit slipped at the end of the year to about 5% of GDP, because of the abrupt decline in revenues.

Eleven months into the year, they stood at some 29% of the GDP compared with an annual projection of 36.5%. In addition, the foreign deficit rose to 14.4 billion euros, increasing by almost 11% compared with the first ten months of 2007. The medium and long-term foreign debt exceeds 50 billion euros and the short-term foreign debt exceeds 20 billion euros.

"Romania needs a buffer-resource in case it is faced with withdrawal of even higher amounts of foreign capital, which cause the RON to depreciate, as well as a sustainable and durable fiscal policy that can be built with the Fund's help," the quoted sources explain.

The former government did not feel necessary to start talks for a financial aid from the IMF, EU or the European Central Bank, but Sebastian Vladescu, former Finance minister, said at the end of last year that Romania would need up to 20 billion euros to cover its financing needs for the next two or three years from the aforementioned sources.

A potential arrangement with the IMF, however, comes with budgetary constraints that are hard to assume from a political point of view. The Fund might demand a deficit of less than 1.5% of GDP, which could only be reached by raising one of the taxes, considering the IMF has traditionally blamed the Finance Ministry for overestimating its revenues. On the other hand, the Emil Boc's Cabinet could use an agreement with the IMF as an excuse for unpopular measures to tighten fiscal and salary policies.