(Initially published in http://www.romania-report.ro/ - Jul 28, 2005)
Lately, the Romanian media and politicians as well largely speculated on the would-be ruling Coalition’s crisis.
However, there is a common place to detect ‘crisis’ elements within heterogeneous coalition governments – in fact, any coalition emerges from the need to provide ‘crisis management’ of a given political environment.
Under the present circumstances, the right measure in judging a certain coalition government rather resides in its particular ruling effectiveness and not in various leadership disputes. And it is obvious that the coalition government in place do not act properly amid recent flood disasters and pressing EU bid agenda. Is this the outcome of the weakening of the ‘DA Alliance’ – the main ruling force in Romania? Some analysts are thinking so.
The ruling Alliance“ (the National Liberal Party - PNL - and the Democratic Party - PD) is no longer what it used to be. PNL and PD have reached ‘discord’. As for their partners in the Coalition at rule, UDMR (the Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania) and PC (the Conservative Party), they seem to use a double standard politics: on one hand they provide support their old ally PSD (the Social-Democrat Party – in opposition), but they still back a weakening government on the other.
There has also been speculation on the crisis PNL is going through. And the premises are right one more time. The loss of credibility and Tariceanu's oscillations has fed adversaries outside the party as well as scum party members who have even attempted the coup that has just failed, says Sorin Rosca Stanescu (from ‘Ziua’ daily newspaper).
As the Liberal minister of culture Mona Musca announced her resignation mainly because of Liberal PM Tariceanu’s change of view regarding early elections this year, Rosca Stanescu immediately speculates this should represent the very sign of ‘President Basescu’s party crisis.’ Indeed, ‘Basescu’s group’ is likely to face hard times as even the Social-Democrats (PSD) in opposition openly backed PM Tariceanu in parliament, early this week.
Sources say that a ‘national union government’ would be possible as being supported by some Liberals, PSD and the Conservative Party. Thus, an older Ion Iliescu’s project would materialise.
Nevertheless, the new Social-Democrat leadership seems to reject such an alliance on the short run.
The bare facts show that, at this moment, President Basescu seemed to marrow his margin of influence on both the government and the parliament. However, the would-be ‘Presidential party’ still has lots of opportunities – to begin with supporting a strong Govt. reshuffle complemented with a healthy re-launching of the present ruling coalition, and ending – for instance – with re-designing the political parties’ environment in order to create a ‘popular’* majority. One should never discard the President’s ability to produce surprise winning solutions for apparently no-way-out occurrences. Under particular circumstances, many MPs (Liberals, Conservatives and even Social-Democrats) would eventually agree upon a new Presidential political project. Anyway, in Romania, there is a very thin line to separate perception of such terms as ‘popular’ and ‘populist’.
Paradoxically, the Romanian Constitution – which reads that presidency must be above political parties – would even allow President Basescu to shape and re-shape parliamentary majority. Surprise movements are expected as the summer is still young for the Romanian President who kept silence so far.
Mihai D. Popescu -- Romania Report
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*) President Basescu eventually managed to set up a new 'popular party' as late as the beginning of 2008 [MDP].
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